Without a shadow of doubt, the nation truly and most desperately wants a change. It is apparent that the outcome of the 2013 elections, (if held, that is) will largely depend on who wins it in the most populous province, Punjab, which in terms of population and resources, constitute about 65 percent of the country. Punjab, no doubt, will be the real electoral battle ground, come next general election. The PPP, despite unflinching covert support of the current powerful 'Establishment', leadership, is unlikely to do well in Punjab in the next elections, like its sidekick, the PML-Q.
All the new surveys, point to decimation of PML-Q and a massive erosion in the popularity of the ruling PPP in Punjab. That leaves PML-N and the PTI as the main contestants. According to these surveys, popularity and support for PML-N is on the rise, while PTI seems to have lost some ground and lagging behind as the number two party of choice in the province. One also needs to be cognisant of the fact that PML-N has limited support and no captive constituencies in other three provinces and that is a gapping vacuum to fill. This issue will most certainly adversely impact on the chances of PML-N and prospects to govern the country for the next 5 years, on its own.
One is not surprised at PTI's losing of ground, for its rhetorical based campaigning, rather than issue based, as seen and perceived by an average Pakistani. PTI's electioneering thrust has been revolving around "3 Ds", ie, (1) down with America sloganeering; (2) damn the drones; and (3) dialogue with the Taliban. The three oft-repeated and hackneyed PTI mantras have now lost relevance, steam and support, for all practical purposes, following the dastardly Taliban attack on Malala Yousufzai. Candidly speaking, the biggest casualty and recipient of the collateral damage resulting from the Malala attack, has been the PTI.